?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:1
series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 37 games
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
53%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 18 games
67%

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 29 games
41%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 26 games
54%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
35%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panda · 22 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 21 game
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chris Luck · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 184 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
291 picks · 412 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
244 picks · 422 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
232 picks · 361 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
232 picks · 379 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
225 picks · 417 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
225 picks · 181 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
224 picks · 440 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 23%
Hero pool strength55% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total71% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:12
PSG Quest 62%Evil Geniuses 38%
The model gave 62% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 42:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidShad
51% · 72 games46% · 75 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightNo!ob
48% · 95 games49% · 186 games
Nature's ProphetMatthew
Nature's Prophet
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTobi
57% · 223 games49% · 73 games
Earth SpiritChris Luck
Earth Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
40% · 78 games52% · 161 game
TidehunterWisper
Tidehunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
53% · 96 games52% · 69 games
IoPanda
Io
Game 2prediction missed7:25
PSG Quest 63%Evil Geniuses 37%
The model gave 63% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 41:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShad
47% · 37 games53% · 54 games
RazorPakazs
Razor
Tidehunter
TidehunterTobi
46% · 76 games51% · 101 game
LycanWisper
Lycan
Earthshaker
EarthshakerNo!ob
45% · 64 games49% · 111 games
Death ProphetChris Luck
Death Prophet
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
52% · 60 games63% · 126 games
Treant ProtectorPanda
Treant Protector
Silencer
SilencerKaori
42% · 173 games50% · 18 games
BaneMatthew
Bane
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 71%
Accuracy by game1 of 2