DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entitywin 2:0series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Liquidloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Team Liquid
Rubicksignature
Boxi · 33 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Nisha · 25 games
Iosignature
Boxi · 24 games
Monkey Kingsignature
miCKe · 24 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Nisha · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Enchantresssignature
iNSaNiA · 22 games
Pangoliersignature
Nisha · 22 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
377 picks · 185 bans
Ember Spirit
291 picks · 412 bans
Undying
244 picks · 422 bans
Batrider
232 picks · 361 bans
Storm Spirit
232 picks · 379 bans
Techies
225 picks · 181 bans
Morphling
224 picks · 417 bans
Pangolier
224 picks · 435 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 53%
Hero pool strength62% Team Liquid
Head-to-head1 – 4
Model total75% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:33
Entity 25%Team Liquid 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 45:19.
Game 2prediction correct24:40
Entity 25%Team Liquid 75%
The model gave 75% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 56:41.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 75%
Series resultEntity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2