?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Shopify Rebellionwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 35 games
54%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 30 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 29 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 26 games
69%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 26 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 25 games
64%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
60%

Shopify Rebellion

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
65%
Doom
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
61%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fly · 22 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
Cr1t- · 21 game
48%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 21 game
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 20 games
70%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 17 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
376 picks · 185 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
295 picks · 414 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
248 picks · 424 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
232 picks · 366 bans
56%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
232 picks · 380 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
229 picks · 181 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
224 picks · 420 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 436 bans
53%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 17%
Hero pool strength50% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total74% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:46
Tundra Esports 65%Shopify Rebellion 35%
The model gave 65% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 50:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenSkiter
52% · 93 games51% · 56 games
AlchemistArteezy
Alchemist
Kunkka
KunkkaTopson
51% · 39 games42% · 49 games
Earth SpiritAbed
Earth Spirit
Sand King
Sand King33
55% · 7 games46% · 88 games
DawnbreakerSabeRLight-
Dawnbreaker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSneyking
64% · 151 game37% · 41 game
GrimstrokeFly
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNine
46% · 33 games45% · 89 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Game 2prediction missed30:43
Tundra Esports 63%Shopify Rebellion 37%
The model gave 63% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 1:03:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkSkiter
52% · 75 games53% · 105 games
SvenArteezy
Sven
Omniknight
Omniknight33
57% · 3 games50% · 197 games
Storm SpiritAbed
Storm Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTopson
48% · 46 games61% · 36 games
AxeSabeRLight-
Axe
Rubick
RubickNine
39% · 228 games52% · 43 games
GrimstrokeCr1t-
Grimstroke
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
52% · 55 games56% · 26 games
Ancient ApparitionFly
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 74%
Series resultShopify Rebellion 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2