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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
OGwin 2:0
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Evil Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 28 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Ceb · 20 games
65%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
47%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 17 games
71%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
56%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Yuragi · 16 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
bzm · 16 games
44%

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 29 games
41%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
35%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 25 games
56%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 25 games
56%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panda · 22 games
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 21 game
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chris Luck · 20 games
55%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 185 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
296 picks · 416 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
248 picks · 427 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
234 picks · 380 bans
50%
Batrider
Batrider
233 picks · 369 bans
55%
Techies
Techies
231 picks · 182 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
225 picks · 422 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 431 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 23%
Hero pool strength51% OG
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total55% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:32
OG 46%Evil Geniuses 54%
The model gave 54% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by OG in 1:16:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinYuragi
43% · 48 games47% · 66 games
MorphlingPakazs
Morphling
Kunkka
Kunkkabzm
45% · 65 games62% · 65 games
EarthshakerWisper
Earthshaker
Brewmaster
BrewmasterCeb
49% · 71 game49% · 85 games
Primal BeastChris Luck
Primal Beast
Dark Seer
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
53% · 147 games47% · 73 games
Treant ProtectorPanda
Treant Protector
51% · 42 games
Vengeful SpiritMatthew
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction missed31:30
OG 48%Evil Geniuses 52%
The model gave 52% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by OG in 49:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaYuragi
51% · 92 games43% · 28 games
Phantom AssassinPakazs
Phantom Assassin
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painbzm
46% · 68 games52% · 223 games
BeastmasterWisper
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMinD_ContRoL
49% · 246 games55% · 233 games
Nature's ProphetMatthew
Nature's Prophet
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorCeb
56% · 177 games41% · 77 games
EarthshakerChris Luck
Earthshaker
52% · 22 games
WarlockPanda
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 55%
Series resultOG 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2