?
arrow_backBack to match
ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 36 games
61%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 20 games
50%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
59%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 16 games
56%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 16 games
63%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%

Nemiga Gaming

Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 26 games
35%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
VaniLLl · 17 games
53%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 16 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
young G · 16 games
56%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
VaniLLl · 14 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
ariel · 14 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 13 games
46%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
488 picks · 269 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
485 picks · 549 bans
53%
Jakiro
Jakiro
480 picks · 393 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
456 picks · 351 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
398 picks · 338 bans
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
361 picks · 826 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
348 picks · 861 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
342 picks · 199 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength53% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct39:26
Yellow Submarine 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lone Druid
Lone DruidShigetsu
70% · 56 games52% · 100 games
Ursaselfhate
Ursa
Tinker
TinkerRain
50% · 42 games55% · 137 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Bristleback
BristlebackBatyuk
51% · 263 games43% · 110 games
UnderlordCovisnine
Underlord
Lich
LichXakoda
31% · 32 games48% · 113 games
PhoenixFishman
Phoenix
Clockwerk
Clockwerknot me
51% · 153 games42% · 86 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Game 2prediction correct19:44
Yellow Submarine 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerShigetsu
45% · 111 games47% · 18 games
Lone Druidselfhate
Lone Druid
Viper
ViperRain
48% · 102 games54% · 150 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
Slardar
SlardarBatyuk
54% · 243 games53% · 107 games
AxeCovisnine
Axe
Techies
Techiesnot me
52% · 57 games55% · 105 games
Rubickariel
Rubick
Lich
LichXakoda
34% · 31 game48% · 164 games
PhoenixFishman
Phoenix
Game 3prediction correct27:9
Yellow Submarine 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistShigetsu
46% · 100 games45% · 306 games
Tinyselfhate
Tiny
Largo
LargoBatyuk
65% · 154 games46% · 296 games
Puckyoung G
Puck
Sand King
Sand KingRain
50% · 237 games41% · 324 games
PangolierCovisnine
Pangolier
Hoodwink
Hoodwinknot me
54% · 496 games50% · 57 games
Techiesariel
Techies
Bane
BaneXakoda
55% · 219 games51% · 223 games
PhoenixFishman
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 52%
Series resultYellow Submarine 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3