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DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Talon Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Sneyking · 35 games
54%
Doom
Doomoften banned
33 · 29 games
52%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Nine · 29 games
72%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Saksa · 26 games
69%
Techies
Techiessignature
Sneyking · 26 games
62%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
33 · 24 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 23 games
61%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Nine · 20 games
60%

Talon Esports

Silencer
Silencer
Oli · 25 games
56%
Rubick
Rubick
Oli · 19 games
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mikoto · 17 games
53%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
23savage · 16 games
50%
Techies
Techiessignature
Q · 16 games
69%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
Mikoto · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mikoto · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
377 picks · 185 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 417 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
249 picks · 426 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
233 picks · 372 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
233 picks · 379 bans
50%
Techies
Techies
232 picks · 185 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
227 picks · 423 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 429 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total56% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:29
Tundra Esports 53%Talon Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 40:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritTopson
49% · 69 games54% · 106 games
Naga SirenJabz
Naga Siren
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerSkiter
45% · 27 games50% · 46 games
Phantom Assassin23savage
Phantom Assassin
Doom
Doom33
45% · 220 games54% · 123 games
Storm SpiritMikoto
Storm Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonNine
52% · 81 game47% · 142 games
TuskQ
Tusk
Lion
LionSneyking
53% · 75 games49% · 55 games
Vengeful SpiritOli
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct30:9
Tundra Esports 54%Talon Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 30:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster
Beastmaster33
53% · 207 games44% · 89 games
Sven23savage
Sven
Slark
SlarkSkiter
49% · 108 games53% · 211 games
Primal BeastMikoto
Primal Beast
Monkey King
Monkey KingTopson
43% · 111 games58% · 81 game
EarthshakerJabz
Earthshaker
Warlock
WarlockSneyking
44% · 55 games53% · 172 games
Keeper of the LightQ
Keeper of the Light
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNine
54% · 142 games47% · 70 games
Vengeful SpiritOli
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 56%
Series resultTundra Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2