DreamLeague Season 21 · BO2
result vs prediction
Entityloss 1:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Shopify Rebellionloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Entity
No games played over 6 months.
Shopify Rebellion
Beastmastersignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Doomsignature
SabeRLight- · 23 games
Undyingsignature
Fly · 22 games
Rubick
Cr1t- · 21 game
Storm Spiritsignature
Abed · 21 game
Enchantresssignature
Fly · 20 games
Miranasignature
Cr1t- · 20 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Abed · 17 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
377 picks · 185 bans
Ember Spirit
298 picks · 417 bans
Undying
249 picks · 426 bans
Batrider
233 picks · 372 bans
Storm Spirit
233 picks · 379 bans
Techies
232 picks · 185 bans
Morphling
227 picks · 423 bans
Pangolier
222 picks · 429 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 17%
Hero pool strength55% Shopify Rebellion
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total62% Entity
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:17
Entity 62%Shopify Rebellion 38%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 45:19.
Game 2prediction missed35:22
Entity 62%Shopify Rebellion 38%
The model gave 62% on Entity — the game was taken by Shopify Rebellion in 44:51.
Model check result
Model favoriteEntity · 62%
Accuracy by game0 of 2