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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Tickleswin 2:1
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:1
StoRmloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Tickles

Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
NARMAN · 2 games
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
100%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Adzantick · 2 games
100%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
NARMAN · 1 game
100%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dukalis · 1 game
100%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Dukalis · 1 game
100%

StoRm

Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 16 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Dominic · 13 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 11 games
36%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Dominic · 9 games
78%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 8 games
63%
Techies
Techies
OneJey · 8 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
SoNNeikO · 7 games
86%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
nicky`cool · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
394 picks · 188 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 442 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
262 picks · 447 bans
45%
Techies
Techies
255 picks · 203 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
244 picks · 445 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
242 picks · 396 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
240 picks · 409 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
233 picks · 445 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 68%
Hero pool strength54% Team Tickles
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Team Tickles
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:38
Team Tickles 51%StoRm 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 57:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShad
45% · 58 games53% · 70 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Kunkka
KunkkaAdzantick
44% · 44 games52% · 99 games
TidehunterDominic
Tidehunter
Axe
AxeBOOM
50% · 15 games52% · 168 games
Treant ProtectorSoNNeikO
Treant Protector
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageNARMAN
50% · 82 games53% · 40 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDukalis
49% · 178 games
Game 2prediction missed23:46
Team Tickles 53%StoRm 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by StoRm in 43:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzShad
59% · 61 game48% · 176 games
Timbersawnicky`cool
Timbersaw
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAdzantick
55% · 204 games46% · 320 games
BeastmasterDominic
Beastmaster
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
48% · 126 games57% · 86 games
Shadow DemonSoNNeikO
Shadow Demon
Doom
DoomNARMAN
48% · 308 games47% · 172 games
Skywrath MageOneJey
Skywrath Mage
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
48% · 55 games
Game 3prediction correct27:20
Team Tickles 52%StoRm 48%
The model gave 52% on Team Tickles — the game was taken by Team Tickles in 31:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaShad
56% · 97 games50% · 116 games
Earthshakernicky`cool
Earthshaker
Pangolier
PangolierAdzantick
52% · 184 games49% · 129 games
UnderlordDominic
Underlord
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBOOM
51% · 156 games54% · 128 games
PhoenixSoNNeikO
Phoenix
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
50% · 56 games47% · 181 game
Skywrath MageOneJey
Skywrath Mage
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerDukalis
40% · 61 game
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Tickles · 58%
Series resultTeam Tickles 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3