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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincereloss 1:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Luna Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 22 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 17 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
88%
Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 7 games
43%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Sven
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
86%

Luna Galaxy

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Davai · 10 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Thiolicor · 9 games
11%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Shad · 9 games
44%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
393 picks · 188 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 441 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
264 picks · 448 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
256 picks · 204 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
244 picks · 446 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
241 picks · 400 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
239 picks · 410 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
230 picks · 443 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 54%
Hero pool strength54% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:9
Natus Vincere 61%Luna Galaxy 39%
The model gave 61% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 22:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShigetsu
60% · 60 games53% · 169 games
Queen of PainStojkov
Queen of Pain
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritmellojul
45% · 282 games49% · 125 games
SvenYuma
Sven
Beastmaster
BeastmasterMalik
55% · 295 games48% · 161 game
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Batrider
Batriderxsvampire
52% · 301 game37% · 391 game
SnapfireThiolicor
Snapfire
Marci
MarciMalady
42% · 129 games61% · 221 game
Treant ProtectorKidaro
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed28:45
Natus Vincere 60%Luna Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 39:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Weaver
WeaverShigetsu
45% · 12 games47% · 50 games
Phantom AssassinYuma
Phantom Assassin
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritmellojul
47% · 87 games55% · 289 games
PangolierStojkov
Pangolier
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMalik
50% · 69 games64% · 228 games
Nature's ProphetKidaro
Nature's Prophet
Rubick
Rubickxsvampire
50% · 502 games50% · 83 games
Legion CommanderDavai
Legion Commander
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeMalady
35% · 69 games49% · 89 games
Dark WillowThiolicor
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction missed26:40
Natus Vincere 62%Luna Galaxy 38%
The model gave 62% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 42:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
43% · 52 games49% · 94 games
Templar AssassinYuma
Templar Assassin
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMalik
46% · 87 games55% · 63 games
EarthshakerDavai
Earthshaker
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritmellojul
52% · 180 games55% · 129 games
PuckStojkov
Puck
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamanxsvampire
41% · 7 games53% · 103 games
Keeper of the LightThiolicor
Keeper of the Light
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenMalady
47% · 97 games52% · 34 games
WarlockKidaro
Warlock
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 70%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3