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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 18 games
67%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 13 games
77%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Sven
Sven
Daxak · 11 games
55%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 10 games
70%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 10 games
80%
Techies
Techies
MiLAN · 9 games
56%

Natus Vincere

Rubick
Rubicksignature
xsvampire · 21 game
62%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
mellojul · 16 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 9 games
56%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Malik · 8 games
88%
Lion
Lionsignature
xsvampire · 8 games
75%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Malik · 7 games
43%
Magnus
Magnussignature
Malik · 7 games
86%
Sven
Svensignature
Shigetsu · 7 games
86%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
392 picks · 193 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
310 picks · 448 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
270 picks · 451 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
266 picks · 217 bans
49%
Batrider
Batrider
252 picks · 410 bans
55%
Morphling
Morphling
249 picks · 464 bans
51%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
244 picks · 414 bans
51%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 451 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 73%
Hero pool strength53% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Natus Vincere
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:25
Level UP 45%Natus Vincere 55%
The model gave 55% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomOwnedMe
45% · 318 games48% · 50 games
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
Phantom Assassin
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightLorenof
44% · 152 games53% · 250 games
Pangoliermellojul
Pangolier
Slark
Slark7jesu
52% · 204 games57% · 76 games
Legion CommanderMalik
Legion Commander
Invoker
Invokerswedenstrong
43% · 114 games51% · 411 games
Rubickxsvampire
Rubick
Warlock
Warlockso bad
53% · 48 games55% · 49 games
GyrocopterMalady
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction correct20:35
Level UP 43%Natus Vincere 57%
The model gave 57% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
53% · 154 games41% · 47 games
Phantom AssassinShigetsu
Phantom Assassin
Slark
Slark7jesu
52% · 70 games50% · 77 games
DawnbreakerMalik
Dawnbreaker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerOwnedMe
49% · 58 games47% · 88 games
Earthshakermellojul
Earthshaker
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritswedenstrong
50% · 45 games58% · 22 games
WarlockMalady
Warlock
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernso bad
30% · 17 games58% · 110 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteNatus Vincere · 59%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2