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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Luna Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 2:0
MoneyMakersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Luna Galaxy

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 14 games
64%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 13 games
46%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 12 games
83%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Davai · 10 games
60%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Shad · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 18 games
44%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 13 games
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
42%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techies
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
44%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritsignature
CeMaTheSlayeR · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
400 picks · 194 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
315 picks · 458 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
275 picks · 461 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
273 picks · 237 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
256 picks · 485 bans
52%
Batrider
Batrider
254 picks · 426 bans
55%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
244 picks · 428 bans
51%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
234 picks · 563 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 47%
Hero pool strength54% Luna Galaxy
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Luna Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:15
Luna Galaxy 56%MoneyMakers 44%
The model gave 56% on Luna Galaxy — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 32:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinStojkov
47% · 91 game47% · 95 games
Naga SirenLukas
Naga Siren
Brewmaster
BrewmasterDavai
46% · 50 games53% · 139 games
Storm SpiritEgor
Storm Spirit
Pudge
PudgeYuma
54% · 54 games46% · 75 games
DawnbreakerBb3px
Dawnbreaker
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageThiolicor
46% · 101 game52% · 28 games
WarlockCeMaTheSlayeR
Warlock
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKidaro
60% · 89 games52% · 48 games
LionBignum
Lion
Game 2prediction correct21:30
Luna Galaxy 54%MoneyMakers 46%
The model gave 54% on Luna Galaxy — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 40:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeYuma
51% · 251 game55% · 302 games
BeastmasterBb3px
Beastmaster
Dark Seer
Dark SeerDavai
53% · 128 games42% · 31 game
MuertaLukas
Muerta
Invoker
InvokerStojkov
37% · 96 games50% · 119 games
Templar AssassinEgor
Templar Assassin
Batrider
BatriderThiolicor
49% · 215 games51% · 177 games
Treant ProtectorCeMaTheSlayeR
Treant Protector
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKidaro
54% · 114 games50% · 175 games
Skywrath MageBignum
Skywrath Mage
Model check result
Model favoriteLuna Galaxy · 59%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2