BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
beastcoastwin 2:1series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Evil Geniusesloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
beastcoast
No games played over 6 months.
Evil Geniuses
Snapfireoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 25 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 24 games
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
Batrideroften banned
Chris Luck · 21 game
Skywrath Mage
Panda · 21 game
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
401 picks · 193 bans
Ember Spirit
318 picks · 459 bans
Techies
277 picks · 241 bans
Undying
277 picks · 462 bans
Batrider
256 picks · 430 bans
Morphling
256 picks · 488 bans
Storm Spirit
242 picks · 432 bans
Timbersaw
234 picks · 571 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head5 – 2
Model total55% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:25
beastcoast 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 21:08.
Game 2prediction correct43:57
beastcoast 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 1:02:37.
Game 3prediction correct29:42
beastcoast 45%Evil Geniuses 55%
The model gave 55% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 45:19.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 55%
Series resultbeastcoast 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3