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BetBoom Dacha · BO1
result vs prediction
Evil Geniusesloss 0:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:1
TSMwin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfireoften banned
Wisper · 29 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
35%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 25 games
56%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 24 games
58%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chris Luck · 21 game
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panda · 21 game
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
45%

TSM

Rubick
Rubick
Ari · 46 games
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 27 games
52%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
53%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 17 games
59%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 17 games
65%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 14 games
29%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
31%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
416 picks · 197 bans
45%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
321 picks · 475 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
290 picks · 280 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
286 picks · 467 bans
46%
Morphling
Morphling
277 picks · 514 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
272 picks · 461 bans
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
251 picks · 451 bans
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
248 picks · 600 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 23%
Hero pool strength52% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total64% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:33
Evil Geniuses 59%TSM 41%
The model gave 59% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by TSM in 49:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinPakazs
50% · 163 games43% · 106 games
TerrorbladeTimado
Terrorblade
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainChris Luck
49% · 93 games47% · 93 games
Puckbryle-
Puck
Night Stalker
Night StalkerWisper
53% · 38 games57% · 41 game
Dawnbreakerkasane
Dawnbreaker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritPanda
59% · 60 games51% · 82 games
Nature's ProphetAri
Nature's Prophet
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMatthew
55% · 79 games42% · 111 games
SilencerWhitemon
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 64%
Series resultTSM 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1