BetBoom Dacha · BO1
result vs prediction
TSMloss 0:1series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Secretwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
TSM
Rubick
Ari · 45 games
Beastmasteroften banned
kasane · 27 games
Batrideroften banned
Ari · 17 games
Lycanoften banned
kasane · 17 games
Terrorbladesignature
Timado · 17 games
Disruptor
Whitemon · 14 games
Broodmotheroften banned
kasane · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
bryle- · 13 games
Team Secret
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 14 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 14 games
Snapfireoften banned
Armel · 14 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Armel · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
416 picks · 199 bans
Ember Spirit
322 picks · 475 bans
Techies
290 picks · 283 bans
Undying
286 picks · 466 bans
Morphling
278 picks · 516 bans
Batrider
273 picks · 462 bans
Storm Spirit
250 picks · 453 bans
Timbersaw
249 picks · 601 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% TSM
Head-to-head0 – 3
Model total59% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:36
TSM 43%Team Secret 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 46:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom AssassinTimado
SvenCrystallis
Pangolierbryle-
DoomFbz
Brewmasterkasane
Storm SpiritSumaiL
RubickAri
Warlockyamich
LionWhitemon
IoPuppey
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 59%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1