Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmwin 2:0series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Ram Squadloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
StoRm
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 12 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 8 games
Spirit Breakersignature
OneJey · 8 games
Techies
OneJey · 8 games
Tidehuntersignature
Dominic · 8 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Primal Beastoften banned
nicky`cool · 7 games
Ram Squad
Spirit Breakersignature
BliNcc · 8 games
Clinkz
w33 · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
kAAN · 4 games
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 4 games
Beastmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
Brewmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
w33 · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
419 picks · 199 bans
Ember Spirit
328 picks · 483 bans
Techies
303 picks · 299 bans
Undying
285 picks · 471 bans
Morphling
284 picks · 537 bans
Batrider
280 picks · 479 bans
Timbersaw
256 picks · 615 bans
Storm Spirit
251 picks · 465 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 25%
Hero pool strength53% StoRm
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
StoRm 66%Ram Squad 34%
The model gave 66% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 24:17.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BeastmasterDominic
SvenkAAN
Pucknicky`cool
Storm Spiritw33
UndyingSoNNeikO
BrewmasterBliNcc
GrimstrokeOneJey
Treant ProtectorFlash
Game 2prediction correct31:2
StoRm 64%Ram Squad 36%
The model gave 64% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 16:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordDominic
GyrocopterkAAN
Pangoliernicky`cool
Outworld Destroyerw33
ChenSoNNeikO
DoomBliNcc
Skywrath MageOneJey
MarciFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 79%
Series resultStoRm 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2