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BetBoom Dacha · BO2
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 14 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 14 games
36%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
54%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%

Evil Geniuses

Snapfire
Snapfire
Matthew · 29 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Matthew · 26 games
35%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Wisper · 25 games
56%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Chris Luck · 23 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Pakazs · 22 games
55%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Chris Luck · 21 game
57%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
Panda · 21 game
57%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Wisper · 20 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
421 picks · 199 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
329 picks · 490 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
308 picks · 304 bans
50%
Undying
Undying
286 picks · 471 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
285 picks · 482 bans
54%
Morphling
Morphling
285 picks · 543 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
258 picks · 622 bans
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
254 picks · 467 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 24%
Hero pool strength53% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total53% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:25
Team Secret 51%Evil Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 48:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
50% · 46 games42% · 203 games
Monkey KingPakazs
Monkey King
Leshrac
LeshracSumaiL
52% · 155 games42% · 147 games
Shadow FiendChris Luck
Shadow Fiend
Dark Seer
Dark SeerFbz
54% · 85 games47% · 146 games
PhoenixWisper
Phoenix
Doom
Doomyamich
49% · 211 games50% · 85 games
EarthshakerMatthew
Earthshaker
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPuppey
63% · 140 games49% · 56 games
GyrocopterPanda
Gyrocopter
Game 2prediction missed13:38
Team Secret 51%Evil Geniuses 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Evil Geniuses in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinSumaiL
56% · 88 games52% · 125 games
SvenPakazs
Sven
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFbz
43% · 51 game49% · 190 games
Monkey KingChris Luck
Monkey King
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallis
58% · 94 games55% · 120 games
EarthshakerWisper
Earthshaker
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightPuppey
50% · 85 games40% · 138 games
PhoenixMatthew
Phoenix
Rubick
Rubickyamich
43% · 336 games50% · 81 game
Vengeful SpiritPanda
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 53%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2