ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Nemesisloss 0:2series probability
10%90%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Nemesis
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 15 games
Tinysignature
Mac · 15 games
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 13 games
Nigma Galaxy
Hoodwink
OmaR · 34 games
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
Jakiro
GH · 21 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
488 picks · 268 bans
Jakiro
486 picks · 396 bans
Phoenix
483 picks · 549 bans
Tiny
459 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
399 picks · 343 bans
Beastmaster
363 picks · 825 bans
Puck
350 picks · 864 bans
Warlock
343 picks · 199 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength50% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total90% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:30
Team Nemesis 25%Nigma Galaxy 75%
The model gave 75% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 20:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker4nalog
Monkey Kingrincyq
UnderlordJabz
LycanNo!ob
Muertarubikon155
ViperDavai
VenomancerYamSun
PhoenixGH
RubickLelis
ClockwerkOmaR
Game 2prediction correct14:45
Team Nemesis 23%Nigma Galaxy 77%
The model gave 77% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 44:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinyrubikon155
Windrangerrincyq
BatriderJabz
LargoNo!ob
Ember Spirit4nalog
UnderlordDavai
ClockwerkLelis
PhoenixGH
SilencerYamSun
HoodwinkOmaR
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 90%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2