Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Ram Squadloss 0:2series probability
30%70%
probability at match start · final 0:2
MoneyMakerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Ram Squad
Spirit Breakersignature
BliNcc · 8 games
Clinkz
w33 · 4 games
Morphlingoften banned
kAAN · 4 games
Puckoften banned
canceL^^ · 4 games
Brewmasteroften banned
BliNcc · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
canceL^^ · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
w33 · 3 games
Iooften banned
Flash · 3 games
MoneyMakers
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 17 games
Rubick
Bignum · 13 games
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
430 picks · 206 bans
Ember Spirit
334 picks · 504 bans
Techies
321 picks · 326 bans
Batrider
296 picks · 506 bans
Morphling
292 picks · 560 bans
Undying
292 picks · 478 bans
Timbersaw
270 picks · 641 bans
Storm Spirit
258 picks · 483 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 50%
Hero pool strength51% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total70% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:46
Ram Squad 38%MoneyMakers 62%
The model gave 62% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 27:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunakAAN
SvenLukas
Dark SeerBliNcc
NecrophosEgor
Tuskw33
AxeBb3px
Treant ProtectorFlash
Dark WillowBignum
39% · 40 games
Vengeful SpiritCeMaTheSlayeR
Game 2prediction correct11:33
Ram Squad 39%MoneyMakers 61%
The model gave 61% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 24:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorkAAN
Phantom AssassinLukas
BeastmasterBliNcc
Storm SpiritEgor
Tinyw33
Legion CommanderBb3px
WarlockFlash
DoomBignum
52% · 99 games
PhoenixCeMaTheSlayeR
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 70%
Series resultMoneyMakers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2