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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MarsBet Teamloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Level UPwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 4 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 3 games
100%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 2 games
100%
Jakiro
Jakiro
LeBronDota · 2 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Otaker · 2 games
0%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 2 games
50%

Level UP

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
63%
Silencer
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
54%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
75%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
90%
Sven
Sven
Daxak · 10 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
67%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
Lorenof · 9 games
78%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 9 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
439 picks · 209 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 517 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
330 picks · 344 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
305 picks · 523 bans
53%
Morphling
Morphling
297 picks · 576 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
295 picks · 481 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
276 picks · 657 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
258 picks · 497 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 67%
Hero pool strength56% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:42
MarsBet Team 36%Level UP 64%
The model gave 64% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 49:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaMo13ei
53% · 43 games46% · 67 games
Queen of PainLorenof
Queen of Pain
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidOtaker
58% · 59 games49% · 52 games
Sven7jesu
Sven
Axe
AxeMr. Luck
51% · 10 games52% · 32 games
BrewmasterOwnedMe
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
47% · 65 games44% · 22 games
Grimstrokeswedenstrong
Grimstroke
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageJeezy
52% · 63 games47% · 67 games
Vengeful Spiritso bad
Vengeful Spirit
Game 2prediction correct5:35
MarsBet Team 37%Level UP 63%
The model gave 63% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 17:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidOtaker
57% · 153 games49% · 70 games
Slark7jesu
Slark
Puck
PuckMo13ei
42% · 147 games58% · 134 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterMr. Luck
40% · 62 games49% · 117 games
Primal BeastOwnedMe
Primal Beast
Clinkz
ClinkzJeezy
46% · 22 games61% · 93 games
Keeper of the Lightswedenstrong
Keeper of the Light
Dark Willow
Dark WillowLeBronDota
45% · 90 games47% · 60 games
Vengeful Spiritso bad
Vengeful Spirit
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 74%
Series resultLevel UP 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2