European Pro League Season 37 · BO3
result vs prediction
DOGSENTloss 0:1series probability
11%89%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Team Nemesiswin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
DOGSENT
Jakiro
Nagato · 3 games
Dazzle
Nagato · 2 games
Shadow Shaman
islA · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Hoodwink
Atoufix · 1 game
Huskaroften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Marci
Atoufix · 1 game
Muertaoften banned
Atoufix · 1 game
Team Nemesis
Tusk
Jhocam · 16 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
Jhocam · 15 games
Slardarsignature
Jabz · 15 games
Tinysignature
Mac · 15 games
Windrangeroften banned
Q · 15 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 14 games
Muertaoften banned
23savage · 13 games
Pangolieroften banned
Mac · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
495 picks · 400 bans
Hoodwink
486 picks · 269 bans
Phoenix
485 picks · 548 bans
Tiny
468 picks · 355 bans
Tusk
400 picks · 345 bans
Beastmaster
365 picks · 827 bans
Puck
353 picks · 865 bans
Warlock
344 picks · 199 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)25% vs 44%
Hero pool strength58% Team Nemesis
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Team Nemesis
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
DOGSENT 11%Team Nemesis 89%
The model gave 89% on Team Nemesis — the game was taken by Team Nemesis.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Nemesis · 89%
Series resultTeam Nemesis 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1