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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 1:2
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 1:2
MarsBet Teamwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 16 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
CeMaTheSlayeR · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
45%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 9 games
44%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Bb3px · 7 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
43%

MarsBet Team

Dark Willow
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 2 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 2 games
100%
Rubick
Rubick
Jeezy · 2 games
50%
Sven
Sven
Otaker · 2 games
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Mo13ei · 1 game
0%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
100%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 211 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 520 bans
51%
Techies
Techies
336 picks · 356 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
309 picks · 533 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
299 picks · 586 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
293 picks · 483 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
279 picks · 663 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
256 picks · 508 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:26
MoneyMakers 58%MarsBet Team 42%
The model gave 58% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 56:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidLukas
54% · 116 games54% · 115 games
Naga SirenOtaker
Naga Siren
Zeus
ZeusEgor
41% · 64 games56% · 109 games
LinaMo13ei
Lina
Underlord
UnderlordBb3px
48% · 66 games53% · 102 games
Dark SeerMr. Luck
Dark Seer
Warlock
WarlockBignum
48% · 9 games44% · 52 games
InvokerJeezy
Invoker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetCeMaTheSlayeR
53% · 176 games43% · 53 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct49:27
MoneyMakers 59%MarsBet Team 41%
The model gave 59% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 56:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
46% · 36 games45% · 86 games
TerrorbladeOtaker
Terrorblade
Lina
LinaEgor
54% · 72 games41% · 32 games
ZeusMo13ei
Zeus
Axe
AxeBb3px
46% · 19 games51% · 54 games
TidehunterMr. Luck
Tidehunter
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCeMaTheSlayeR
54% · 47 games55% · 62 games
Skywrath MageJeezy
Skywrath Mage
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonBignum
53% · 64 games25% · 4 games
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
Ogre Magi
Game 3prediction missed18:42
MoneyMakers 55%MarsBet Team 45%
The model gave 55% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 44:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinLukas
53% · 80 games56% · 216 games
BloodseekerOtaker
Bloodseeker
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
50% · 164 games56% · 16 games
NecrophosMo13ei
Necrophos
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritEgor
51% · 107 games46% · 149 games
UnderlordMr. Luck
Underlord
Rubick
RubickBignum
47% · 174 games56% · 50 games
ClinkzJeezy
Clinkz
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCeMaTheSlayeR
42% · 38 games48% · 132 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 62%
Series resultMarsBet Team 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3