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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakerswin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 15 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubick
Bignum · 11 games
55%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Egor · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
57%

Natus Vincere Junior

Rubick
Rubick
Daze · 13 games
46%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 12 games
42%
Mirana
Mirana
Riddys · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 10 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
Ri4man · 10 games
50%
Magnus
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
pma · 8 games
38%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Riddys · 8 games
25%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
438 picks · 210 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
341 picks · 365 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 526 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
318 picks · 540 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
300 picks · 591 bans
52%
Undying
Undying
293 picks · 487 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
282 picks · 671 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
260 picks · 514 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total55% MoneyMakers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:25
MoneyMakers 55%Natus Vincere Junior 45%
The model gave 55% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 44:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaLukas
64% · 81 game49% · 140 games
Templar Assassintoshiyb
Templar Assassin
Doom
DoomBb3px
48% · 241 game58% · 46 games
Razorgotthejuice
Razor
Invoker
InvokerEgor
41% · 77 games55% · 291 game
Beastmasterpma
Beastmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowBignum
49% · 73 games44% · 58 games
Vengeful SpiritDaze
Vengeful Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorCeMaTheSlayeR
52% · 121 game43% · 58 games
LionRiddys
Lion
Game 2prediction missed8:23
MoneyMakers 52%Natus Vincere Junior 48%
The model gave 52% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by Natus Vincere Junior in 24:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
51% · 119 games41% · 64 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterBb3px
57% · 58 games55% · 502 games
Pangoliertoshiyb
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
51% · 237 games45% · 78 games
Vengeful Spiritpma
Vengeful Spirit
Rubick
RubickCeMaTheSlayeR
50% · 299 games47% · 99 games
Earth SpiritDaze
Earth Spirit
Invoker
InvokerBignum
51% · 70 games55% · 40 games
GrimstrokeRiddys
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction correct24:11
MoneyMakers 54%Natus Vincere Junior 46%
The model gave 54% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 28:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaLukas
53% · 210 games41% · 68 games
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
57% · 505 games45% · 262 games
Doompma
Doom
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritEgor
48% · 104 games58% · 145 games
Void Spirittoshiyb
Void Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritBignum
58% · 66 games47% · 413 games
RubickDaze
Rubick
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonCeMaTheSlayeR
45% · 174 games45% · 171 game
SilencerRiddys
Silencer
Model check result
Model favoriteMoneyMakers · 55%
Series resultMoneyMakers 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3