Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
StoRmwin 2:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:1
MarsBet Teamloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
StoRm
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 10 games
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 9 games
Spirit Breaker
OneJey · 9 games
Techiesoften banned
OneJey · 8 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 6 games
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 6 games
MarsBet Team
Dark Willow
LeBronDota · 2 games
Brewmasteroften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Dark Seeroften banned
Mr. Luck · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
Invokeroften banned
Jeezy · 1 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Queen of Painoften banned
Mo13ei · 1 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Otaker · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
439 picks · 209 bans
Techies
346 picks · 373 bans
Ember Spirit
337 picks · 533 bans
Batrider
319 picks · 550 bans
Morphling
301 picks · 602 bans
Undying
293 picks · 490 bans
Timbersaw
284 picks · 680 bans
Storm Spirit
264 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 60%
Hero pool strength60% MarsBet Team
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:17
StoRm 60%MarsBet Team 40%
The model gave 60% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 36:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshakernicky`cool
SvenOtaker
BeastmasterDominic
ViperMo13ei
ChenSoNNeikO
BrewmasterMr. Luck
Skywrath MageOneJey
Keeper of the LightJeezy
40% · 59 games
Dark WillowLeBronDota
Game 2prediction missed28:32
StoRm 58%MarsBet Team 42%
The model gave 58% on StoRm — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 43:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangoliernicky`cool
GyrocopterOtaker
UnderlordDominic
Ember SpiritMo13ei
Skywrath MageOneJey
Dark SeerMr. Luck
WarlockSoNNeikO
RubickJeezy
40% · 39 games
Vengeful SpiritLeBronDota
Game 3prediction correct40:17
StoRm 61%MarsBet Team 39%
The model gave 61% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 45:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshakernicky`cool
SvenOtaker
BeastmasterDominic
UnderlordMr. Luck
ChenSoNNeikO
DazzleMo13ei
Skywrath MageOneJey
RubickJeezy
49% · 56 games
JakiroLeBronDota
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 66%
Series resultStoRm 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3