Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Storm Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 16 games
Silencer
MiLAN · 13 games
Primal Beastsignature
OwnedMe · 12 games
Naga Sirensignature
Daxak · 10 games
Pugnasignature
swedenstrong · 9 games
Sven
Daxak · 9 games
Techiesoften banned
MiLAN · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
Daxak · 8 games
Natus Vincere Junior
Rubick
Daze · 12 games
Techiesoften banned
Daze · 12 games
Mirana
Riddys · 11 games
Batrideroften banned
Daze · 10 games
Dragon Knight
Ri4man · 10 games
Magnussignature
pma · 10 games
Disruptor
Riddys · 8 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
gotthejuice · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
439 picks · 209 bans
Techies
347 picks · 374 bans
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 535 bans
Batrider
320 picks · 551 bans
Morphling
301 picks · 604 bans
Undying
293 picks · 490 bans
Timbersaw
284 picks · 682 bans
Storm Spirit
264 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% Level UP
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:22
Level UP 60%Natus Vincere Junior 40%
The model gave 60% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 38:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor7jesu
Alchemistgotthejuice
NecrophosOwnedMe
Doompma
Dragon KnightLorenof
Ember Spirittoshiyb
Earthshakerswedenstrong
RubickDaze
Skywrath Mageso bad
WarlockRiddys
Game 2prediction correct37:24
Level UP 59%Natus Vincere Junior 41%
The model gave 59% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 47:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth SpiritLorenof
Phantom Assassingotthejuice
Razor7jesu
Pangoliertoshiyb
BrewmasterOwnedMe
Beastmasterpma
Lionswedenstrong
Shadow DemonDaze
Dark Willowso bad
GrimstrokeRiddys
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 68%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2