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Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3
result vs prediction
MoneyMakersloss 1:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 1:2
StoRmwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MoneyMakers

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Bb3px · 14 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Bignum · 12 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
CeMaTheSlayeR · 11 games
45%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Bignum · 10 games
60%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Bignum · 10 games
30%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
Bignum · 7 games
57%
Slark
Slarkoften banned
Lukas · 7 games
29%

StoRm

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
emptiness · 10 games
60%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
OneJey · 9 games
67%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
OneJey · 9 games
56%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
OneJey · 8 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 7 games
14%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SoNNeikO · 7 games
14%
Doom
Doomoften banned
emptiness · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
nicky`cool · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
441 picks · 210 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
355 picks · 385 bans
51%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
336 picks · 545 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
327 picks · 563 bans
52%
Morphling
Morphling
304 picks · 612 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
294 picks · 492 bans
46%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
288 picks · 689 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
266 picks · 535 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 56%
Hero pool strength50% MoneyMakers
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total51% StoRm
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:14
MoneyMakers 52%StoRm 48%
The model gave 52% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by MoneyMakers in 32:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLukas
49% · 52 games47% · 11 games
Dazzlenicky`cool
Dazzle
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
47% · 213 games41% · 50 games
Vengeful SpiritDominic
Vengeful Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBb3px
56% · 24 games60% · 96 games
Treant ProtectorSoNNeikO
Treant Protector
Warlock
WarlockCeMaTheSlayeR
68% · 11 games45% · 224 games
TinyOneJey
Tiny
Invoker
InvokerBignum
53% · 81 game
Game 2prediction missed33:38
MoneyMakers 51%StoRm 49%
The model gave 51% on MoneyMakers — the game was taken by StoRm in 54:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerLukas
65% · 56 games46% · 340 games
Primal Beastnicky`cool
Primal Beast
Pangolier
PangolierEgor
54% · 169 games62% · 19 games
WarlockSoNNeikO
Warlock
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
51% · 23 games49% · 180 games
TidehunterDominic
Tidehunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageBignum
53% · 80 games46% · 47 games
GrimstrokeOneJey
Grimstroke
Rubick
RubickCeMaTheSlayeR
41% · 258 games
Game 3prediction correct23:26
MoneyMakers 49%StoRm 51%
The model gave 51% on StoRm — the game was taken by StoRm in 37:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeLukas
49% · 135 games56% · 155 games
TidehunterDominic
Tidehunter
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritEgor
43% · 243 games48% · 258 games
Primal Beastnicky`cool
Primal Beast
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBb3px
51% · 234 games51% · 105 games
Dark WillowOneJey
Dark Willow
Lion
LionBignum
43% · 42 games58% · 178 games
Treant ProtectorSoNNeikO
Treant Protector
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritCeMaTheSlayeR
47% · 42 games
Model check result
Model favoriteStoRm · 51%
Series resultStoRm 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3