Ram Squad vs MarsBet Team — prediction PCMV# · Dota 2

arrow_backBack to match

Pinnacle Cup: Malta Vibes #3 · BO3

result vs prediction

Ram Squadloss 0:2

series probability

52%48%

probability at match start · final 0:2

MarsBet Teamwin 2:0

The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.

Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months

Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Ram Squad

Spirit Breakersignature

BliNcc · 8 games

63%

Clinkz

w33 · 4 games

50%

Puckoften banned

canceL^^ · 4 games

25%

Ember Spiritoften banned

canceL^^ · 3 games

33%

Morphlingoften banned

kAAN · 3 games

33%

Beastmasteroften banned

ArisE · 2 games

50%

Doomoften banned

BliNcc · 2 games

100%

Magnusoften banned

BliNcc · 2 games

50%

MarsBet Team

No games played over 6 months.

Patch meta · 3 months

The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.

Rubick

442 picks · 210 bans

48%

Techies

358 picks · 387 bans

51%

Ember Spirit

337 picks · 547 bans

51%

Batrider

327 picks · 566 bans

52%

Morphling

304 picks · 615 bans

51%

Undying

294 picks · 495 bans

46%

Timbersaw

288 picks · 693 bans

49%

Storm Spirit

268 picks · 536 bans

50%

Prediction components

Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%

Hero pool strength51% Ram Squad

Head-to-head0 – 0

Model total52% Ram Squad

Prediction by game vs result

Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.

Game 1prediction missed26:65

Ram Squad 52%MarsBet Team 48%

The model gave 52% on Ram Squad — the game was taken by MarsBet Team in 46:30.

Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo