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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Zero Tenacitywin 2:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 2:1
REKONIXloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 47 games
64%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
63%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Nefrit · 37 games
59%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 35 games
69%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 32 games
44%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 31 game
77%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
56%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 20 games
75%
Tiny
Tiny
inYourdreaM · 19 games
47%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Fbz · 15 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Varizh · 14 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 12 games
83%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
TraVins · 12 games
42%
Axe
Axesignature
Fbz · 9 games
78%
Kez
Kezsignature
TraVins · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
497 picks · 409 bans
50%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 267 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
483 picks · 546 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
470 picks · 353 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
403 picks · 350 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
362 picks · 825 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
352 picks · 870 bans
53%
Warlock
Warlock
344 picks · 201 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 37%
Hero pool strength51% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed43:36
Zero Tenacity 48%REKONIX 52%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 1:10:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinKami
49% · 215 games49% · 494 games
TinyTraVins
Tiny
Timbersaw
TimbersawMikSa`
54% · 249 games47% · 450 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
49% · 426 games50% · 439 games
Storm SpiritinYourdreaM
Storm Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkdEsire
51% · 460 games51% · 246 games
Rubickdalul
Rubick
Ringmaster
RingmasterMoOz
52% · 322 games51% · 43 games
MiranaVarizh
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct7:34
Zero Tenacity 48%REKONIX 52%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 26:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKami
48% · 554 games58% · 132 games
KezTraVins
Kez
Sand King
Sand KingWorick
48% · 221 game43% · 470 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Pangolier
PangolierMikSa`
52% · 459 games50% · 349 games
Queen of PaininYourdreaM
Queen of Pain
Ringmaster
RingmasterMoOz
46% · 386 games52% · 510 games
Hoodwinkdalul
Hoodwink
Rubick
RubickdEsire
53% · 244 games51% · 403 games
WarlockVarizh
Warlock
Game 3prediction missed36:15
Zero Tenacity 46%REKONIX 54%
The model gave 54% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Zero Tenacity in 47:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tiny
TinyKami
44% · 552 games53% · 254 games
MuertaTraVins
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixMoOz
47% · 306 games49% · 345 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Primal Beast
Primal BeastMikSa`
52% · 130 games50% · 435 games
Ember SpiritinYourdreaM
Ember Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierWorick
47% · 370 games57% · 243 games
Windrangerdalul
Windranger
Techies
TechiesdEsire
41% · 55 games59% · 136 games
Treant ProtectorVarizh
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 55%
Series resultZero Tenacity 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3