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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Luna Galaxyloss 0:2
series probability
12%88%
probability at match start · final 0:2
PSG Questwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Luna Galaxy

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Adzantick · 14 games
57%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 11 games
91%
Medusa
Medusaoften banned
Shad · 9 games
44%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Davai · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 41 game
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 22 games
68%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 21 game
62%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 20 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
464 picks · 228 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
432 picks · 463 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 640 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 596 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
330 picks · 688 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
323 picks · 754 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
306 picks · 514 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
299 picks · 612 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:20
Luna Galaxy 26%PSG Quest 74%
The model gave 74% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 40:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawDavai
45% · 155 games60% · 164 games
Naga SirenTA2000
Naga Siren
Sven
SvenShad
57% · 57 games54% · 265 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAdzantick
53% · 52 games40% · 68 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonThiolicor
44% · 77 games53% · 28 games
Ancient ApparitionKaori
Ancient Apparition
Rubick
RubickDukalis
42% · 372 games54% · 188 games
Skywrath MageOmaR
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct19:39
Luna Galaxy 27%PSG Quest 73%
The model gave 73% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 44:12.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenShad
51% · 52 games48% · 61 game
GyrocopterTA2000
Gyrocopter
Primal Beast
Primal BeastAdzantick
49% · 114 games53% · 87 games
EarthshakerNo!ob
Earthshaker
Underlord
UnderlordDavai
51% · 84 games40% · 52 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Mirana
MiranaThiolicor
53% · 120 games50% · 143 games
Skywrath MageOmaR
Skywrath Mage
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
51% · 48 games52% · 75 games
IoKaori
Io
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 88%
Series resultPSG Quest 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2