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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 1:2
series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 1:2
PSG Questwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Secret

Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 20 games
65%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
yamich · 14 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Armel · 14 games
36%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Crystallis · 13 games
54%
Chen
Chenoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
46%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Puppey · 13 games
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Armel · 12 games
50%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
Armel · 12 games
33%

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 39 games
54%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 30 games
80%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 21 game
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
No!ob · 20 games
60%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 20 games
65%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
TA2000 · 19 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
461 picks · 229 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
437 picks · 465 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 644 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 597 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
331 picks · 692 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
323 picks · 757 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 514 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
299 picks · 616 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)29% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total66% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct28:17
Team Secret 39%PSG Quest 61%
The model gave 61% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 54:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Pangolier
PangolierArmel
55% · 177 games45% · 56 games
LunaTA2000
Luna
Razor
RazorCrystallis
47% · 23 games49% · 127 games
EarthshakerNo!ob
Earthshaker
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerFbz
45% · 58 games46% · 58 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Rubick
Rubickyamich
50% · 280 games49% · 205 games
PhoenixKaori
Phoenix
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPuppey
58% · 93 games50% · 185 games
Skywrath MageOmaR
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction missed32:9
Team Secret 43%PSG Quest 57%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Brewmaster
BrewmasterFbz
48% · 48 games50% · 59 games
Troll WarlordTA2000
Troll Warlord
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritArmel
51% · 413 games50% · 232 games
Primal BeastNo!ob
Primal Beast
Sven
SvenCrystallis
55% · 103 games46% · 114 games
DawnbreakerTobi
Dawnbreaker
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetPuppey
52% · 343 games46% · 529 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Elder Titan
Elder Titanyamich
55% · 77 games47% · 50 games
Vengeful SpiritKaori
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction correct9:26
Team Secret 41%PSG Quest 59%
The model gave 59% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 37:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earthshaker
EarthshakerArmel
49% · 104 games47% · 60 games
SvenTA2000
Sven
Tidehunter
TidehunterFbz
49% · 144 games54% · 245 games
PangolierNo!ob
Pangolier
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerCrystallis
43% · 156 games51% · 38 games
BrewmasterTobi
Brewmaster
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorPuppey
55% · 279 games47% · 485 games
RubickOmaR
Rubick
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mageyamich
54% · 189 games52% · 44 games
OracleKaori
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 66%
Series resultPSG Quest 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3