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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO5
result vs prediction
Team SMGwin 3:0
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Blacklist Internationalloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team SMG

Rubick
Rubicksignature
Poloson · 15 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
AhFu · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Mirana
Poloson · 12 games
42%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
Jaunuel · 10 games
70%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Jaunuel · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshakeroften banned
AhFu · 7 games
57%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Moon · 7 games
43%
Kunkka
Kunkka
Moon · 7 games
43%

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
460 picks · 229 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
440 picks · 467 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 648 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 599 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
331 picks · 693 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
324 picks · 759 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 514 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 618 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 42%
Hero pool strength54% Team SMG
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total56% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:13
Team SMG 44%Blacklist International 56%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Team SMG in 23:25.
Game 2prediction missed28:3
Team SMG 44%Blacklist International 56%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Team SMG in 35:52.
Game 3prediction missed24:27
Team SMG 44%Blacklist International 56%
The model gave 56% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Team SMG in 41:56.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 56%
Series resultTeam SMG 3:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3