IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Мьянмаwin 2:1series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Кыргызстанloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Мьянма
No games played over 6 months.
Кыргызстан
Pangolieroften banned
Askold · 4 games
Warlock
Max · 3 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kami · 2 games
Dark Willow
Zayac · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Zayac · 2 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Askold · 2 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Kami · 2 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
463 picks · 228 bans
Techies
442 picks · 477 bans
Batrider
396 picks · 655 bans
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 602 bans
Morphling
333 picks · 696 bans
Timbersaw
325 picks · 765 bans
Undying
310 picks · 515 bans
Doom
302 picks · 575 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 62%
Hero pool strength55% Кыргызстан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Мьянма
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:24
Мьянма 57%Кыргызстан 43%
The model gave 57% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 32:35.
Game 2prediction missed17:33
Мьянма 57%Кыргызстан 43%
The model gave 57% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 40:20.
Game 3prediction missed7:34
Мьянма 57%Кыргызстан 43%
The model gave 57% on Мьянма — the game was taken by Кыргызстан in 35:57.
Model check result
Model favoriteМьянма · 57%
Series resultМьянма 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3