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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questwin 2:1
series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:1
OGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 38 games
53%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 29 games
79%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 20 games
70%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kaori · 19 games
53%

OG

Rubick
Rubick
Taiga · 28 games
54%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 21 game
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
50%
Venomancer
Venomancersignature
DM · 18 games
72%
Doom
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
47%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Chuvash · 16 games
56%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
462 picks · 227 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
442 picks · 477 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 655 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
368 picks · 601 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
333 picks · 696 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
325 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
310 picks · 515 bans
46%
Doom
Doom
302 picks · 572 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 31%
Hero pool strength53% PSG Quest
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total64% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:34
PSG Quest 57%OG 43%
The model gave 57% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 1:23:45.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
61% · 81 game54% · 190 games
MedusaYuragi
Medusa
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
48% · 206 games46% · 135 games
Legion CommanderDM
Legion Commander
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerTobi
44% · 46 games52% · 295 games
Storm Spiritbzm
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickOmaR
45% · 354 games52% · 229 games
Keeper of the LightCeb
Keeper of the Light
Silencer
SilencerKaori
46% · 162 games
Game 2prediction missed25:29
PSG Quest 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by OG in 58:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinTA2000
60% · 92 games48% · 181 game
TerrorbladeYuragi
Terrorblade
Puck
PuckNo!ob
56% · 84 games37% · 78 games
Invokerbzm
Invoker
Visage
VisageTobi
52% · 64 games53% · 108 games
UnderlordDM
Underlord
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
45% · 66 games47% · 54 games
IoCeb
Io
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
52% · 115 games
Game 3prediction correct24:10
PSG Quest 60%OG 40%
The model gave 60% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 44:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
51% · 53 games49% · 44 games
LunaYuragi
Luna
Invoker
InvokerNo!ob
43% · 49 games53% · 115 games
Puckbzm
Puck
Earthshaker
EarthshakerTobi
52% · 43 games47% · 74 games
UnderlordDM
Underlord
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
43% · 39 games53% · 59 games
IoCeb
Io
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
55% · 108 games
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 64%
Series resultPSG Quest 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3