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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 15 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 13 games
69%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
83%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skem · 5 games
80%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Skem · 5 games
80%

Execration

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Tino- · 25 games
68%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 21 game
52%
Rubick
Rubick
Shanks · 19 games
42%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Bob · 15 games
40%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
40%
Visage
Visageoften banned
Tino- · 15 games
53%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Shanks · 13 games
62%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Tino- · 13 games
54%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
461 picks · 226 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
443 picks · 479 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 654 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
367 picks · 601 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
333 picks · 695 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
326 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 516 bans
46%
Doom
Doom
303 picks · 572 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 25%
Hero pool strength60% Geek Fam
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total55% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:6
Geek Fam 58%Execration 42%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 34:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenUlnit
51% · 59 games57% · 108 games
MedusaPalos
Medusa
Underlord
UnderlordForce
53% · 63 games39% · 120 games
Dragon KnightBob
Dragon Knight
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
46% · 381 game45% · 73 games
Earth SpiritTino-
Earth Spirit
Warlock
WarlockSkem
67% · 14 games52% · 216 games
Nature's ProphetShanks
Nature's Prophet
Game 2prediction missed18:38
Geek Fam 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Execration in 38:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenUlnit
49% · 53 games50% · 60 games
Templar AssassinPalos
Templar Assassin
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
55% · 96 games52% · 119 games
BeastmasterTino-
Beastmaster
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerNARMAN
54% · 90 games50% · 31 game
EarthshakerBob
Earthshaker
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSkem
48% · 21 game37% · 50 games
Dark WillowShanks
Dark Willow
Game 3prediction correct37:10
Geek Fam 56%Execration 44%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 43:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaUlnit
59% · 127 games43% · 258 games
DoomTino-
Doom
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerForce
54% · 93 games40% · 100 games
Drow RangerPalos
Drow Ranger
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
53% · 503 games51% · 321 game
Ember SpiritBob
Ember Spirit
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionSkem
46% · 30 games51% · 74 games
Dark WillowShanks
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 55%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3