IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Монголияwin 2:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:1
СШАloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Монголия
Phantom Assassin
Ksh · 2 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Earthshakeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Leshrac
Young PH · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
США
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
459 picks · 225 bans
Techies
444 picks · 481 bans
Batrider
394 picks · 655 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 601 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 694 bans
Timbersaw
326 picks · 767 bans
Undying
308 picks · 516 bans
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 626 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength57% Монголия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% США
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
Монголия 36%США 64%
The model gave 64% on США — the game was taken by США in 36:25.
Game 2prediction correct28:17
Монголия 36%США 64%
The model gave 64% on США — the game was taken by США in 39:47.
Game 3prediction correct30:9
Монголия 36%США 64%
The model gave 64% on США — the game was taken by США in 43:04.
Model check result
Model favoriteСША · 64%
Series resultМонголия 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3