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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Bleed Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Geek Famwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Bleed Esports

Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
85%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 10 games
50%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 10 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
44%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
iceiceice · 7 games
71%

Geek Fam

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 15 games
80%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 12 games
75%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
83%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
NARMAN · 6 games
67%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skem · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Jaunuel · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
458 picks · 223 bans
47%
Techies
Techies
446 picks · 483 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
392 picks · 657 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 597 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
332 picks · 695 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
327 picks · 766 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
308 picks · 517 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
301 picks · 627 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 79%
Hero pool strength56% Geek Fam
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total50% Bleed Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct13:31
Bleed Esports 47%Geek Fam 53%
The model gave 53% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 50:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinJaCkky
61% · 50 games56% · 54 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Brewmaster
Brewmastericeiceice
31% · 26 games54% · 70 games
UnderlordForce
Underlord
Tusk
TuskDJ
50% · 62 games40% · 33 games
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
Vengeful Spirit
Phoenix
PhoenixDuBu
45% · 28 games52% · 9 games
WarlockSkem
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct27:3
Bleed Esports 51%Geek Fam 49%
The model gave 51% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 30:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingJaCkky
49% · 75 games53% · 198 games
DoomForce
Doom
Naga Siren
Naga Sireniceiceice
53% · 168 games47% · 90 games
BloodseekerUlnit
Bloodseeker
Mirana
MiranaDJ
49% · 372 games45% · 170 games
EnchantressNARMAN
Enchantress
Warlock
WarlockDuBu
54% · 10 games51% · 167 games
ClockwerkSkem
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed12:32
Bleed Esports 54%Geek Fam 46%
The model gave 54% on Bleed Esports — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 37:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterJaCkky
51% · 71 game47% · 109 games
TerrorbladeUlnit
Terrorblade
Razor
Razoriceiceice
55% · 68 games47% · 69 games
UnderlordForce
Underlord
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightDJ
52% · 227 games46% · 356 games
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkDuBu
53% · 354 games49% · 186 games
DisruptorSkem
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteBleed Esports · 50%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3