The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Allianceloss 1:2series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 1:2
OGwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
OG
Rubick
Taiga · 27 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
Taiga · 21 game
Monkey Kingoften banned
Taiga · 18 games
Venomancersignature
DM · 18 games
Doomoften banned
DM · 17 games
Enchantressoften banned
Chuvash · 17 games
Disruptor
Chuvash · 16 games
Invokeroften banned
bzm · 16 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
457 picks · 223 bans
Techies
452 picks · 486 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 655 bans
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 599 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 699 bans
Timbersaw
328 picks · 767 bans
Undying
309 picks · 518 bans
Storm Spirit
305 picks · 628 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 28%
Hero pool strength52% OG
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total71% OG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:19
Alliance 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 32:32.
Game 2prediction missed46:21
Alliance 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by Alliance in 59:07.
Game 3prediction correct14:22
Alliance 29%OG 71%
The model gave 71% on OG — the game was taken by OG in 31:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteOG · 71%
Series resultOG 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3