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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Army Geniuses

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yowe · 10 games
50%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
db- · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
Jhocam · 8 games
38%
Doom
Doomoften banned
db- · 7 games
29%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Varizh · 7 games
43%
Tiny
Tiny
Jhocam · 7 games
57%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Yowe · 6 games
50%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Jhocam · 6 games
83%

BOOM Esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
xNova · 7 games
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Xepher · 7 games
29%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Natsumi · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
457 picks · 222 bans
46%
Techies
Techies
456 picks · 488 bans
51%
Batrider
Batrider
394 picks · 654 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 601 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
331 picks · 699 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 766 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 517 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
306 picks · 631 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 44%
Hero pool strength54% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total58% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:36
Army Geniuses 42%BOOM Esports 58%
The model gave 58% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 31:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerinYourdreaM
42% · 79 games40% · 69 games
Phantom LancerNatsumi
Phantom Lancer
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYowe
54% · 77 games55% · 76 games
EarthshakerYopaj
Earthshaker
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spiritdb-
44% · 41 game52% · 109 games
Legion CommanderWs
Legion Commander
Batrider
BatriderJhocam
49% · 175 games46% · 81 game
Dark WillowBoBoKa
Dark Willow
Silencer
SilencerVarizh
51% · 134 games60% · 171 game
Treant ProtectorxNova
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction missed38:14
Army Geniuses 47%BOOM Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerinYourdreaM
48% · 95 games40% · 92 games
InvokerYopaj
Invoker
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerdb-
60% · 24 games52% · 113 games
DawnbreakerWs
Dawnbreaker
Broodmother
BroodmotherYowe
63% · 83 games50% · 178 games
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Templar Assassin
Rubick
RubickJhocam
49% · 298 games38% · 161 game
PhoenixxNova
Phoenix
Silencer
SilencerVarizh
54% · 131 game53% · 87 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Game 3prediction correct19:27
Army Geniuses 48%BOOM Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 47:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorinYourdreaM
55% · 40 games46% · 183 games
TerrorbladeNatsumi
Terrorblade
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYowe
51% · 355 games44% · 155 games
TimbersawWs
Timbersaw
Sand King
Sand Kingdb-
57% · 3 games43% · 111 games
Dragon KnightYopaj
Dragon Knight
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageJhocam
51% · 184 games52% · 246 games
BatriderBoBoKa
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorVarizh
57% · 162 games49% · 49 games
Elder TitanxNova
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 58%
Series resultBOOM Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3