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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
PSG Questloss 1:2
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Luna Galaxywin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

PSG Quest

Rubick
Rubick
OmaR · 36 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Kaori · 28 games
79%
Techies
Techiessignature
OmaR · 25 games
68%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Kaori · 20 games
70%
Silencer
Silencersignature
Kaori · 20 games
65%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
No!ob · 20 games
65%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
No!ob · 19 games
58%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Kaori · 19 games
53%

Luna Galaxy

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 13 games
62%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Thiolicor · 13 games
69%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Davai · 12 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Xakoda · 11 games
55%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Thiolicor · 10 games
90%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Adzantick · 9 games
67%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Davai · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Thiolicor · 7 games
29%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
458 picks · 491 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
455 picks · 222 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 657 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
366 picks · 600 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
332 picks · 700 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 764 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 518 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 632 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 43%
Hero pool strength52% PSG Quest
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% PSG Quest
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:7
PSG Quest 77%Luna Galaxy 23%
The model gave 77% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by PSG Quest in 33:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
51% · 122 games50% · 66 games
AlchemistShad
Alchemist
Puck
PuckNo!ob
53% · 107 games44% · 266 games
Ember SpiritAdzantick
Ember Spirit
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTobi
50% · 42 games55% · 90 games
LycanDavai
Lycan
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonKaori
41% · 79 games45% · 76 games
DawnbreakerDukalis
Dawnbreaker
Mirana
MiranaOmaR
61% · 213 games46% · 65 games
InvokerThiolicor
Invoker
Game 2prediction missed19:30
PSG Quest 75%Luna Galaxy 25%
The model gave 75% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 1:18:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaTA2000
59% · 153 games44% · 92 games
KunkkaAdzantick
Kunkka
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainNo!ob
56% · 88 games48% · 190 games
SlarkShad
Slark
Brewmaster
BrewmasterTobi
50% · 44 games42% · 312 games
DoomDavai
Doom
Rubick
RubickOmaR
53% · 382 games48% · 171 game
Shadow DemonThiolicor
Shadow Demon
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorKaori
52% · 135 games46% · 37 games
Vengeful SpiritDukalis
Vengeful Spirit
Game 3prediction missed12:9
PSG Quest 74%Luna Galaxy 26%
The model gave 74% on PSG Quest — the game was taken by Luna Galaxy in 39:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTA2000
48% · 84 games51% · 162 games
MedusaShad
Medusa
Lycan
LycanTobi
50% · 120 games50% · 354 games
Primal BeastAdzantick
Primal Beast
Tiny
TinyNo!ob
49% · 429 games47% · 124 games
UnderlordDavai
Underlord
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageOmaR
47% · 172 games52% · 437 games
MiranaThiolicor
Mirana
Rubick
RubickKaori
48% · 619 games57% · 347 games
Treant ProtectorDukalis
Treant Protector
Model check result
Model favoritePSG Quest · 89%
Series resultLuna Galaxy 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3