IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Украинаloss 0:1series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Индонезияwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Украина
Invokeroften banned
Panda · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
Kidaro · 1 game
Bloodseekeroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Clockwerk
Kidaro · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Enchantressoften banned
Kidaro · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Индонезия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
458 picks · 491 bans
Rubick
453 picks · 221 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 654 bans
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 600 bans
Morphling
330 picks · 699 bans
Timbersaw
329 picks · 763 bans
Undying
309 picks · 518 bans
Storm Spirit
306 picks · 632 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Индонезия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Украина
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Украина 66%Индонезия 34%
The model gave 66% on Украина — the game was taken by Индонезия.
Model check result
Model favoriteУкраина · 66%
Series resultИндонезия 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1