?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
40%60%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Geek Famwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 16 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 14 games
64%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 7 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 6 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
80%

Geek Fam

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 13 games
85%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 7 games
71%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
83%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skem · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Jaunuel · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulnit · 5 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
458 picks · 491 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
453 picks · 221 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 654 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 600 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
330 picks · 699 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 763 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 518 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
306 picks · 632 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 77%
Hero pool strength58% Geek Fam
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:32
Neon Esports 44%Geek Fam 56%
The model gave 56% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 34:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordFortuneSoul
50% · 50 games51% · 25 games
SvenUlnit
Sven
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritKen
61% · 68 games35% · 17 games
BrewmasterForce
Brewmaster
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHishge
44% · 63 games48% · 131 game
RubickNARMAN
Rubick
69% · 8 games
WarlockSkem
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed30:11
Neon Esports 42%Geek Fam 58%
The model gave 58% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 35:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingFortuneSoul
52% · 200 games57% · 98 games
Shadow FiendUlnit
Shadow Fiend
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritKen
42% · 228 games55% · 88 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Phoenix
PhoenixHishge
41% · 109 games52% · 211 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
56% · 140 games
Treant ProtectorSkem
Treant Protector
Game 3prediction correct30:27
Neon Esports 43%Geek Fam 57%
The model gave 57% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 47:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingFortuneSoul
49% · 159 games51% · 44 games
GyrocopterUlnit
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
45% · 115 games55% · 157 games
Dark SeerForce
Dark Seer
Rubick
RubickHishge
50% · 334 games53% · 335 games
ClockwerkNARMAN
Clockwerk
49% · 72 games
InvokerSkem
Invoker
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 60%
Series resultGeek Fam 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3