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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Blacklist Internationalwin 2:0
series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Bleed Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Blacklist International

No games played over 6 months.

Bleed Esports

Silencer
Silencersignature
DuBu · 13 games
85%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
DuBu · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubick
DJ · 10 games
30%
Doom
Doomoften banned
iceiceice · 9 games
44%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirensignature
JaCkky · 9 games
89%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 8 games
63%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
JaCkky · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
iceiceice · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
460 picks · 491 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
453 picks · 220 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
393 picks · 654 bans
52%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 602 bans
50%
Morphling
Morphling
332 picks · 699 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 765 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
309 picks · 518 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
307 picks · 633 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Bleed Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total53% Blacklist International
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:21
Blacklist International 53%Bleed Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 37:48.
Game 2prediction missed8:21
Blacklist International 53%Bleed Esports 47%
The model gave 53% on Blacklist International — the game was taken by Bleed Esports in 39:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteBlacklist International · 53%
Series resultBlacklist International 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2