IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
Монголияwin 2:1series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Индонезияloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Монголия
Queen of Painoften banned
Young PH · 2 games
Leshrac
Young PH · 1 game
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Young PH · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Ksh · 1 game
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
Ksh · 1 game
Индонезия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
465 picks · 493 bans
Rubick
456 picks · 218 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 657 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 603 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 700 bans
Timbersaw
327 picks · 764 bans
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 634 bans
Undying
309 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Монголия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total62% Монголия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:39
Монголия 62%Индонезия 38%
The model gave 62% on Монголия — the game was taken by Индонезия in 41:06.
Game 2prediction missed19:31
Монголия 62%Индонезия 38%
The model gave 62% on Монголия — the game was taken by Индонезия in 39:54.
Game 3prediction missed25:9
Монголия 62%Индонезия 38%
The model gave 62% on Монголия — the game was taken by Индонезия in 37:50.
Model check result
Model favoriteМонголия · 62%
Series resultМонголия 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3