The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:2series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Nigma Galaxy
Disruptorsignature
GH · 21 game
Beastmastersignature
MinD_ContRoL · 17 games
Enchantresssignature
KuroKy · 16 games
Timbersawoften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 15 games
Snapfire
MinD_ContRoL · 10 games
Iooften banned
GH · 9 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Yuma · 8 games
Dark Seeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 8 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
465 picks · 493 bans
Rubick
456 picks · 218 bans
Batrider
395 picks · 656 bans
Ember Spirit
364 picks · 602 bans
Morphling
332 picks · 700 bans
Timbersaw
327 picks · 763 bans
Storm Spirit
309 picks · 634 bans
Undying
309 picks · 522 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 39%
Hero pool strength53% Nigma Galaxy
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:33
Nigma Galaxy 71%Alliance 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Alliance in 37:33.
Game 2prediction correct3:37
Nigma Galaxy 71%Alliance 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:07.
Game 3prediction missed12:37
Nigma Galaxy 71%Alliance 29%
The model gave 71% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Alliance in 41:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 71%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3