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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:1
series probability
76%24%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Myth Avenue Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
xNova · 10 games
70%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Yopaj · 9 games
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 8 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
xNova · 7 games
100%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Xepher · 7 games
57%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Natsumi · 6 games
33%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Yopaj · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Xepher · 5 games
20%

Myth Avenue Gaming

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
xsilearn · 11 games
64%
Rubick
Rubick
xsilearn · 9 games
33%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
YoungGodLevi · 8 games
50%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
xsilearn · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
PlayHard · 7 games
29%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
Poloson · 7 games
43%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
PlayHard · 6 games
67%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
zeal · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
465 picks · 496 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
456 picks · 218 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
397 picks · 659 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 602 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
331 picks · 704 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
327 picks · 763 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 636 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
311 picks · 520 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 46%
Hero pool strength56% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:27
BOOM Esports 62%Myth Avenue Gaming 38%
The model gave 62% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by Myth Avenue Gaming in 45:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNatsumi
49% · 144 games57% · 251 game
Nature's ProphetMeracle
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
46% · 71 game55% · 381 game
Pangolierxsilearn
Pangolier
Mars
MarsWs
39% · 128 games51% · 86 games
Dark WillowPoloson
Dark Willow
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
46% · 122 games54% · 336 games
ClockwerkPonlo
Clockwerk
Rubick
RubickxNova
47% · 589 games
Game 2prediction correct33:10
BOOM Esports 64%Myth Avenue Gaming 36%
The model gave 64% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 35:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeNatsumi
45% · 204 games53% · 269 games
Pangolierxsilearn
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritYopaj
43% · 68 games47% · 105 games
Dark SeerMeracle
Dark Seer
Mars
MarsWs
50% · 109 games52% · 247 games
DoomPoloson
Doom
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightBoBoKa
45% · 147 games58% · 48 games
Vengeful SpiritPonlo
Vengeful Spirit
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorxNova
55% · 141 game
Game 3prediction correct41:20
BOOM Esports 65%Myth Avenue Gaming 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 57:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerWs
51% · 61 game49% · 215 games
Pangolierxsilearn
Pangolier
Morphling
MorphlingNatsumi
58% · 133 games48% · 52 games
RazorMeracle
Razor
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainYopaj
51% · 75 games49% · 63 games
Dark WillowPoloson
Dark Willow
Elder Titan
Elder TitanxNova
52% · 34 games47% · 24 games
Vengeful SpiritPonlo
Vengeful Spirit
Lion
LionBoBoKa
44% · 51 game
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 76%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3