?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Geek Famwin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
UD Vessuwanloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Geek Fam

Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Force · 13 games
85%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
NARMAN · 10 games
80%
Doom
Doomsignature
Force · 6 games
67%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Skem · 6 games
83%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Force · 5 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Skem · 5 games
80%
Mirana
Mirana
Jaunuel · 5 games
60%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
Ulnit · 5 games
80%

UD Vessuwan

Undying
Undyingoften banned
LionaX · 14 games
43%
Rubick
Rubick
boombell · 12 games
33%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
KNP · 9 games
44%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
boombell · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 8 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Beebie · 8 games
75%
Mirana
Miranasignature
LionaX · 7 games
71%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Beebie · 7 games
43%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
466 picks · 501 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
454 picks · 214 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
396 picks · 664 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 606 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
333 picks · 704 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 763 bans
49%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 640 bans
51%
Undying
Undying
312 picks · 522 bans
46%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 42%
Hero pool strength61% Geek Fam
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Geek Fam
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
Geek Fam 68%UD Vessuwan 32%
The model gave 68% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 26013:54:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerForce
51% · 96 games51% · 75 games
SvenKNP
Sven
Slark
SlarkUlnit
57% · 163 games53% · 201 game
PangolierFearless
Pangolier
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritNARMAN
51% · 45 games38% · 124 games
Death ProphetBeebie
Death Prophet
Disruptor
DisruptorSkem
50% · 308 games48% · 66 games
Dark Willowboombell
Dark Willow
47% · 146 games
SilencerLionaX
Silencer
Game 2prediction correct22:14
Geek Fam 68%UD Vessuwan 32%
The model gave 68% on Geek Fam — the game was taken by Geek Fam in 25:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Clinkz
ClinkzUlnit
55% · 40 games55% · 167 games
Naga SirenKNP
Naga Siren
Doom
DoomForce
51% · 295 games49% · 415 games
BeastmasterBeebie
Beastmaster
Rubick
RubickNARMAN
43% · 589 games51% · 179 games
PuckFearless
Puck
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorSkem
51% · 209 games56% · 299 games
Nature's ProphetLionaX
Nature's Prophet
42% · 73 games
Dark Willowboombell
Dark Willow
Model check result
Model favoriteGeek Fam · 81%
Series resultGeek Fam 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2