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The International 2023 — Квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Made in Philippinesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Ken · 15 games
53%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Hishge · 13 games
69%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ken · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Ken · 7 games
57%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
FortuneSoul · 7 games
71%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
FortuneSoul · 6 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
FortuneSoul · 6 games
33%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Hishge · 5 games
80%

Made in Philippines

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
JG · 12 games
33%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Rupido · 10 games
50%
Rubick
Rubicksignature
Bombi · 10 games
60%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Bombi · 7 games
43%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Rupido · 6 games
67%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Bombi · 5 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Teehee · 5 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
JG · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
469 picks · 501 bans
51%
Rubick
Rubick
453 picks · 215 bans
46%
Batrider
Batrider
395 picks · 663 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 609 bans
49%
Morphling
Morphling
333 picks · 703 bans
52%
Timbersaw
Timbersaw
329 picks · 763 bans
49%
Undying
Undying
312 picks · 522 bans
46%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spirit
311 picks · 641 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength56% Neon Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed33:25
Neon Esports 52%Made in Philippines 48%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Made in Philippines in 44:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinFortuneSoul
43% · 32 games48% · 36 games
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
Gyrocopter
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritKen
51% · 144 games52% · 350 games
Ember SpiritJG
Ember Spirit
Rubick
RubickHishge
49% · 348 games53% · 116 games
TidehunterRupido
Tidehunter
54% · 22 games
Ancient ApparitionTeehee
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction correct30:14
Neon Esports 52%Made in Philippines 48%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 32:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordFortuneSoul
44% · 29 games45% · 24 games
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckKen
54% · 73 games44% · 52 games
DawnbreakerRupido
Dawnbreaker
Batrider
BatriderHishge
54% · 156 games50% · 47 games
InvokerJG
Invoker
52% · 135 games
SilencerTeehee
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct30:17
Neon Esports 53%Made in Philippines 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 36:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenFortuneSoul
61% · 67 games51% · 35 games
GyrocopterYoungGodLevi
Gyrocopter
Puck
PuckKen
50% · 62 games48% · 78 games
LycanRupido
Lycan
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHishge
55% · 167 games45% · 157 games
Ember SpiritJG
Ember Spirit
29% · 26 games
BrewmasterTeehee
Brewmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 54%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3