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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
MOUZloss 1:2
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Yellow Submarinewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

MOUZ

Tusk
Tusk
yamich · 56 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Crystallis · 42 games
62%
Warlock
Warlock
Seleri · 37 games
46%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
BOOM · 31 game
48%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Seleri · 29 games
45%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
MidOne · 29 games
59%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Crystallis · 28 games
54%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
Seleri · 25 games
68%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Htrd · 34 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mirele · 21 game
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
Mirele · 21 game
48%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 18 games
50%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
bottega · 17 games
59%
Warlock
Warlock
Htrd · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
prblms · 15 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
bottega · 15 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
502 picks · 412 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
484 picks · 266 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 545 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
471 picks · 353 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
406 picks · 350 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
362 picks · 825 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
353 picks · 871 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
345 picks · 203 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 54%
Hero pool strength50% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total77% MOUZ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed21:39
MOUZ 65%Yellow Submarine 35%
The model gave 65% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCrystallis
45% · 63 games53% · 318 games
TinyShigetsu
Tiny
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSumaiL
59% · 489 games48% · 170 games
TidehunterBatyuk
Tidehunter
Sand King
Sand KingBOOM
52% · 211 games46% · 297 games
PangolierRain
Pangolier
Enchantress
EnchantressTobi
52% · 154 games50% · 201 game
Batridernot me
Batrider
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeyamich
49% · 96 games36% · 27 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Game 2prediction correct40:14
MOUZ 63%Yellow Submarine 37%
The model gave 63% on MOUZ — the game was taken by MOUZ in 42:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezCrystallis
57% · 147 games47% · 334 games
TinyShigetsu
Tiny
Necrophos
NecrophosSumaiL
54% · 11 games49% · 263 games
PangolierBatyuk
Pangolier
Underlord
UnderlordBOOM
46% · 240 games53% · 71 game
HuskarRain
Huskar
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
52% · 421 game47% · 211 games
Muertanot me
Muerta
Phoenix
PhoenixTobi
51% · 304 games46% · 244 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Game 3prediction missed11:38
MOUZ 64%Yellow Submarine 36%
The model gave 64% on MOUZ — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 32:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kez
KezCrystallis
55% · 81 game48% · 197 games
Primal BeastBatyuk
Primal Beast
Necrophos
NecrophosSumaiL
26% · 10 games47% · 86 games
AlchemistShigetsu
Alchemist
Pangolier
PangolierBOOM
44% · 229 games68% · 99 games
Keeper of the LightRain
Keeper of the Light
Hoodwink
Hoodwinkyamich
50% · 280 games49% · 125 games
Clockwerknot me
Clockwerk
Phoenix
PhoenixTobi
49% · 172 games44% · 265 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteMOUZ · 77%
Series resultYellow Submarine 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3