IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Украинаloss 0:1series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Мьянмаwin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Украина
Batrideroften banned
Kidaro · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
StoneBank · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Infernal · 1 game
Мьянма
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
472 picks · 505 bans
Rubick
452 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
397 picks · 667 bans
Ember Spirit
362 picks · 614 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 706 bans
Timbersaw
329 picks · 763 bans
Undying
314 picks · 523 bans
Storm Spirit
312 picks · 643 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 40%
Hero pool strength57% Украина
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Украина
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Украина 61%Мьянма 39%
The model gave 61% on Украина — the game was taken by Мьянма.
Model check result
Model favoriteУкраина · 61%
Series resultМьянма 0:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1