IESF World Championship 2023 Dota 2 · BO1
result vs prediction
Чехияwin 1:0series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Швецияloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Чехия
No games played over 6 months.
Швеция
Dawnbreakeroften banned
woMy · 1 game
Legion Commanderoften banned
woMy · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Silenceroften banned
Hyde · 1 game
Slarkoften banned
Dreamocel · 1 game
Vengeful Spirit
Hyde · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
474 picks · 506 bans
Rubick
453 picks · 217 bans
Batrider
398 picks · 670 bans
Ember Spirit
363 picks · 616 bans
Morphling
337 picks · 708 bans
Timbersaw
329 picks · 765 bans
Undying
314 picks · 524 bans
Storm Spirit
313 picks · 645 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 33%
Hero pool strength50% Швеция
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total60% Чехия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct
Чехия 60%Швеция 40%
The model gave 60% on Чехия — the game was taken by Чехия.
Model check result
Model favoriteЧехия · 60%
Series resultЧехия 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1