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ESSENCE I · BO3
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Zero Tenacityloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 34 games
56%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 28 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
No!ob · 24 games
46%
Muerta
Muertaoften banned
rincyq · 24 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
OmaR · 23 games
57%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 22 games
55%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
No!ob · 21 game
57%
Jakiro
Jakiro
GH · 21 game
33%

Zero Tenacity

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
dEsire · 49 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
MoOz · 38 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Worick · 37 games
70%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Nefrit · 36 games
61%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Nefrit · 33 games
45%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Worick · 32 games
75%
Underlord
Underlordoften banned
Nefrit · 28 games
54%
Tusk
Tusk
dEsire · 27 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
505 picks · 413 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
485 picks · 263 bans
57%
Phoenix
Phoenix
481 picks · 542 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
473 picks · 354 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
407 picks · 353 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
363 picks · 824 bans
48%
Puck
Puck
354 picks · 872 bans
54%
Warlock
Warlock
345 picks · 203 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 55%
Hero pool strength54% Zero Tenacity
Head-to-head4 – 0
Model total77% Nigma Galaxy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct0:0
Nigma Galaxy 63%Zero Tenacity 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 24:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladerincyq
48% · 177 games51% · 97 games
LycanMikSa`
Lycan
Viper
ViperDavai
43% · 100 games55% · 268 games
PuckWorick
Puck
Pangolier
PangolierNo!ob
44% · 307 games57% · 152 games
Monkey KingKami
Monkey King
Techies
TechiesGH
46% · 40 games57% · 147 games
RubickMoOz
Rubick
Clockwerk
ClockwerkOmaR
46% · 125 games50% · 85 games
GrimstrokedEsire
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct51:31
Nigma Galaxy 63%Zero Tenacity 37%
The model gave 63% on Nigma Galaxy — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 45:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangerrincyq
54% · 216 games45% · 100 games
MorphlingKami
Morphling
Batrider
BatriderNo!ob
48% · 320 games50% · 185 games
BristlebackMikSa`
Bristleback
Slardar
SlardarDavai
53% · 249 games45% · 261 game
PangolierWorick
Pangolier
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernGH
50% · 20 games52% · 81 game
Nyx AssassindEsire
Nyx Assassin
Spirit Breaker
Spirit BreakerOmaR
44% · 71 game56% · 249 games
RingmasterMoOz
Ringmaster
Model check result
Model favoriteNigma Galaxy · 77%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2